Rational Thoughts in an Irrational World: Iran and the UN

Iran and the UN - intransigence vs incompetence

From the SMH - Iran says it will not be bullied by the United States over its nuclear program and is not worried about being referred to the UN Security Council.

I must say, if I were Iran, I wouldn't be overly worried about the UNSC either. If the UNSC delegations can't even agree on the wording of a statement to Iran, what chance have they of producing a serious set of sanctions or authorisation of military action? Especially with China, Russia and their joint nutjob client-state North Korea all making billions selling technology and military hardware to Iran. And because of this inability to act through the formal processes of the UN (no major surprise there) it leaves three major possible outcomes for this situation - firstly that nothing is done, Iran developes a nuclear capability, and then proceeds to not use them (possible, but Iran isn't the most rational of players on the world stage, especially with their current 'Kill the Jews, all of them' regime).

The second possible outcome is a mushroom cloud, possibly in Israel, or near one of the US fleets in or around the Gulf, or perhaps even in a western city. Again, this is possible, due to the aforementioned irrational player aspect to Iran, even though direct and swift retribution would ensue.

The third possible outcome involves military intervention, either directly by the US (through a covert strike or even invasion by the US) or indirectly (sabotage or otherwise) by Israel to destroy the nuclear facilities. However, whether the US or even Israel have the will to do so is in question, both due to sluggish support for the Iraq war in the US making the Administration less likely to take risks, and hostility towards Israel at a high with Hamas in power in Palestine combined with rising antipathy in Europe and the rest of the Middle East making Israel think that the possible gain isn't worth the pain.

You would probably notice that I didn't really mention the UNSC in anything I just wrote, or the UN in general - because apart from being a dead weight and deadlocking proceedures in endless processes to the delight or dictatorships and military juntas around the world, they don't do anything if action seems a real possibility. Maybe I'm being too harsh, but I don't think so.

Either way, what I said above is pieced together facts glued together by assertions, or maybe its the other way around. If you have an idea, or an opinion on the matter, please comment.

Stuart Lord